Mutuel field heavy favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/12/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first of three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers for the 2012 Run for the Roses closed Sunday night with the mutuel field being a heavy favorite. The top single three-year-old was Union Rags.

The Future Wager, comprised of 23 individual three-year-olds plus the mutuel field, began Friday at noon (et) and concluded Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).

The mutuel field opened as the 9-5 morning-line favorite and was bet down to 3-2 when the wagering concluded. The mutuel field includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool.

Union Rags closed at 7-1 after opening at 10-1. The colt is expected to make his 2012 debut at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26. He was undefeated heading into last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He finished second, a head behind Hansen.

Algorithms, winner of the Holy Bull Stakes, was the third choice at 12-1. He opened as the top individual three-year-old at odds of 8-1.

Eclipse Award winner Hansen was 12-1 in the opening odds and closed at 26-1.

Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:

1. Algorithms 8-1 12-1

2. Alpha 20-1 19-1

3. Battle Hardened 30-1 46-1

4. Creative Cause 20-1 17-1

5. Discreet Dancer 15-1 30-1

6. Dullahan 20-1 40-1

7. El Padrino 20-1 16-1

8. Empire Way 50-1 33-1

9. Ever So Lucky 20-1 55-1

10. Fed Biz 20-1 21-1

11. Gemologist 20-1 22-1

12. Hansen 12-1 26-1

13. I'll Have Another 20-1 29-1

14. Junebugred 50-1 58-1

15. Liaison 20-1 56-1

16. Longview Drive 50-1 99-1

17. Midnight Transfer 50-1 67-1

18. Mr. Bowling 50-1 85-1

19. Out of Bounds 20-1 23-1

20. Rousing Sermon 30-1 71-1

21. Sabercat 30-1 34-1

22. Take Charge Indy 30-1 42-1

23. Union Rags 10-1 7-1

24. All Other 3YOs (field) 9-5 3-2

The remaining two Future Wagers will be held March 2-4 and March 30-April 1.

The 138th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.