Rounding Third: Linsanity would never happen in MLB

Baseball Betting Lines

02/13/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The whole sports world seems to be enamored with what's going on with the New York Knicks and Jeremy Lin. It's become a story that has transcended not only the National Basketball Association, but all of sports.

In case you've been living under a rock for the past week, Lin was the 12th man on the Knicks' bench, but was given a chance on Feb. 4 against the New Jersey Nets and since then has set the NBA world on fire. His inspired play has helped the Knicks win five straight games and have led some to amazingly question how Carmelo Anthony fits on the team now.

It's truly Linsanity.

Lin jerseys are flying off the shelves as quickly as they are put on. Time Warner Cable and MSG Networks, who have been feuding since the start of the NBA season, now have the added pressure of coming to some sort of agreement because New Yorkers want their Lin, who has already donned the cover of the New York Times three times.

It's an incredible story. A true rags-to-riches turnaround. But, unfortunately one that would never see the light of day in Major League Baseball.

At least not anymore.

You see MLB fans have become so jaded over the past 10 years or so that if someone like Lin burst upon that scene, he would immediately be subject to steroid speculation. Heck, baseball fans are wary of their biggest stars these days, let alone the 25th player on the bench.

Pitchers sometimes come out of nowhere. Not to this extent, but it happens. Can you imagine Ramiro Pena or Wilson Valdez or a Esteban German being the driving force offensively and changing the entire perception of their teams?

Actually, those three are 10 times more likely to do it than Lin. That's how big a long shot this was.

Thankfully, pitchers and catchers report in less than a week and we can get back to talking about-on-the-field issues.

YANKS, PIRATES DISCUSSING A.J. BURNETT DEAL

In some actual baseball news, the New York Yankees may have found themselves a sucker, er, a potential suitor, for right-hander A.J. Burnett. Apparently the Yanks are deep into talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates to send the underachieving pitcher to the Steel City for a ton of cash and a few minor leaguers.

Why the Yankees are even haggling at this point is beyond me? As soon as the Pirates said they were interested, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman should have agreed to the deal - any deal.

In a bizarre twist, the Yanks want to deal Burnett and are willing to eat a good portion of the $33 million owed to him to free up a little more dough to go and add a couple of bats.

Yes, that's right, the Pirates are taking some of Burnett's salary off the Yankees' hands so New York can free up a few million and go sign Raul Ibanez or Johnny Damon. Luckily there are teams like the Pirates to absorb some salary, so teams like the Yankees can get by.

Either way it's a no-brainer for the Yanks. Aside from the World Series title in 2009, one the Yanks don't win without Burnett by the way, he has been an utter disaster, putting forth two of the worst statistical seasons ever by a Yankees starter over the last two years.

If this deal goes down here in the coming days, Burnett would have been paid $1.45 million for each of his 34 wins in the last three years with the Yanks.

And poor Jeremy Lin was sleeping on a couch just last week.

Not bad work if you can get it.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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